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Fazoh · The mirror of the future
Claim No. 00023 Markets desk Filed Oct 5, 2026 3:09 PM UTC Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will the Fed's target rate be at or below 3.50% on 31 December 2027?

Asked by basispoint Team Rules checked by Faz on Oct 8

Resolves Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target range in effect at the end of 31 December 2027 is 3.50% or lower, per the Federal Reserve's FOMC statements.

Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 31 Dec 2027
Time decides in 01y01m27d12:50:44
No positions yet 2 answers · 1 yes · 1 no
Unsealedawaits 12.31.2027 When the date arrives, Faz proposes a verdict with sources and an editor seals it.
Settled by
Federal Reserve (FOMC statements)
Decides on
Dec 31, 2027 in 423 days
Evidence
8 sources
On the record
0 positions 2 answers

How this claim is decided

  1. FiledOct 5, 2026
  2. Argued2 answers · 8 sources
  3. Faz rules1 ruling · latest Oct 8
  4. The date arrivesDec 31, 2027
  5. SealedAn editor seals the verdict, with sources

The Fed's target rate since 2008

Official data

The upper limit of the federal funds target range set by the FOMC, at the end of each month. The claim needs it at 3.50% or lower on 31 December 2027.

Today
4.00%as of 1 Nov 2026
Last change
17 Sep 2026from 3.75%
Still to go
50 basis pointsto reach 3.50%

Upper limit of the target range

0% 2% 4% 6% 2010 2015 2020 2025 31 Dec 2027 3.50%, the claim's line Upper limit of the target range, latest: 4.00%

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED (series DFEDTARU) · data through 1 Nov 2026 · checked 2 Nov 2026

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The record over time

since Oct 8, 2026

Faz's rulings

#RuledRulingWhat moved it
1 Oct 8, 2026 Unlikely by then First ruling

The debate, as Faz reads it

3 contributions read · Oct 6, 2026

The Fed just hiked to 3.75-4.00% in September 2026 (its first hike since 2023), and its own September SEP median for end-2027 sits at a 4.1% midpoint — well above the 3.50% threshold. The YES case rests on two bank forecasts (Goldman, BofA) projecting 2027 cuts, but both predate the September hike, and futures price another hike first.</summary>

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Since the last reading: First reading. The September 2026 hike to 3.75-4.00% and the accompanying SEP/dot plot set the baseline: the committee's own median and a hawkish dot distribution both sit above 3.50%, and YES must rely on pre-hike bank forecasts plus a political-pressure tailwind.</what_changed>

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The case on each side

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It will happen It won't
Answers11
Rebuttals00
Strongest answer Two major banks forecast cuts in the second half of 2027, and Goldman's June and December calls alone would land exactly on 3.50%. Nora Ellis The committee's own median for end-2027 is 4.1%, and futures price another hike before any cut. basispoint

Quick takes

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  • Threshold: 3.50% upper bound at the end of 31 Dec 2027. Meetings left: 27–28 Oct and 8–9 Dec this year, eight in 2027, the last on 7–8 Dec. From 4.00%, that is two net cuts in ten meetings (three if December hikes).

    basispointTeam · NO · Oct 5, 2026 · federalreserve.gov

Questions on this claim

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  1. Will the FOMC cut at least twice in 2027?

    2 answers · 1 yes · 1 no
    Nora Ellis: Two major banks forecast cuts in the second half of 2027, and Goldman's June and December calls alone would land exactly on 3.50%.

Evidence on the record

8 sources
SourceCited by
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026 The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Nora Ellis basispoint
Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026 The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target le... basispoint
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate-cut call to 2027 on strong US jobs data Reuters (via Kitco) · Jun 8, 2026 The brokerage now expects rate cuts in June and December 2027, instead of the 25-basis-point reductions it had forecast for December 2026 and March 2027. Nora Ellis
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023 Bloomberg News (via CPA Practice Advisor) · Sep 16, 2026 However, eight policymakers favored moving another quarter point higher by the end of 2027 compared to where rates stand now. Nora Ellis basispoint
Fed unlikely to cut interest rates until second half of 2027, Bank of America says CBS News · May 8, 2026 Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will delay lowering interest rates until the second half of 2027, mainly due to strong inflation and resilient job growth. Nora Ellis
Federal Reserve raises rates, officials signal one more hike in 2026 J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · Sep 17, 2026 The unanimous vote to raise rates by 25bps was the FOMC's most unified and explicit commitment combating the inflation side of their mandate since Kevin Warsh took over as chair basispoint
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut Associated Press (via OPB) · Sep 16, 2026 But Wall Street analysts now see a rate hike by December as a near certainty, according to futures prices. basispoint
federalreserve.gov federalreserve.gov basispoint

Every source links to the page itself, with the line it was cited for. Our standards

Time decides

2027

01y01m27d12:50:44

31 December 2027

In 01y 01m

Faz

Ruled Oct 8
Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 31 Dec 2027
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