Public record
Faz's record
A referee you cannot check is just an opinion. These are Faz's rulings, each kept with the day it was made, and set against what happened once time decides them. The questions that happened are on the archive's report card.
On the record, waiting for time
What Faz has ruled so far, with the day it ruled. Nothing here can be rewritten: each one is set against reality the day time decides it, and lands in the archive.
Dates
- When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body? 2027 · most likely 2027–2030 · ruled 13 Oct 2026
- When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year? 2027 · most likely 2026–2031 · ruled 20 Oct 2026
- When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro areas? 2028 · most likely 2027–2031 · ruled 21 Oct 2026
- When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at full scale in Earth orbit? 2028 · most likely 2027–2033 · ruled 23 Oct 2026
- When will global warming pass 1.5°C on a 20-year average? 2029 · most likely 2027–2033 · ruled 17 Oct 2026
- When will astronauts walk on the Moon again? 2030 · most likely 2028–2034 · ruled 10 Oct 2026
- When will a magnetic-confinement fusion device reach scientific gain (Q > 1)? 2030 · most likely 2028–2042 · ruled 12 Oct 2026
- When will the world go a full calendar year with no wild poliovirus cases? 2031 · most likely 2028–2046 · ruled 17 Oct 2026
- When will the European Union have 30 member states? 2035 · most likely 2031–2052 · ruled 15 Oct 2026
- When will solar generate more electricity than coal worldwide? 2036 · most likely 2032–2044 · ruled 14 Oct 2026
- When will a quantum computer break a 2048-bit RSA key? 2042 · most likely 2034–2068 · ruled 18 Oct 2026
- When will humans first land on Mars? 2045 · most likely 2036–2075 · ruled 7 Oct 2026
- When will China's GDP in US dollars pass America's? 2048 · most likely 2036–2066 · ruled 8 Oct 2026
- When will the Arctic Ocean first be practically ice-free in September? 2048 · most likely 2036–2072 · ruled 9 Oct 2026
- When will people live on the Moon for a full year without a break? 2050 · most likely 2040–2078 · ruled 23 Oct 2026
- When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds? 2056 · most likely 2032–2089 · ruled 11 Oct 2026
- When will the world's population peak? 2078 · most likely 2060–2094 · ruled 20 Oct 2026
Milestones, the first to be decided first
- Will the Fed's target rate be at or below 3.50% on 31 December 2027? Unlikely by then · decided 31 Dec 2027
- Will the men's marathon world record of 1:59:30 be broken before 1 January 2030? Open question · decided 1 Jan 2030
Every decided ruling
Nothing decided yet. Each milestone is decided on its date, with the ruling Faz had 48 hours before it.