The ledger
19 open claims
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Will the Fed's target rate be at or below 3.50% on 31 December 2027?
Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 31 Dec 2027 No positions yet -
Will the men's marathon world record of 1:59:30 be broken before 1 January 2030?
Faz rules Open question Decided 1 Jan 2030 No positions yet -
When will humans first land on Mars?
Faz's date 2045 most likely 2036–2075 1 defend it will happen (2059) · 0 defend it won’t -
When will China's GDP in US dollars pass America's?
Faz's date 2048 most likely 2036–2066 No positions yet -
When will the Arctic Ocean first be practically ice-free in September?
Faz's date 2048 most likely 2036–2072 No positions yet -
When will astronauts walk on the Moon again?
Faz's date 2030 most likely 2028–2034 No positions yet -
When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?
Faz's date 2056 most likely 2032–2089 No positions yet -
When will a magnetic-confinement fusion device reach scientific gain (Q > 1)?
Faz's date 2030 most likely 2028–2042 No positions yet -
When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body?
Faz's date 2027 most likely 2027–2030 No positions yet -
When will solar generate more electricity than coal worldwide?
Faz's date 2036 most likely 2032–2044 No positions yet -
When will the European Union have 30 member states?
Faz's date 2035 most likely 2031–2052 No positions yet -
When will the world go a full calendar year with no wild poliovirus cases?
Faz's date 2031 most likely 2028–2046 No positions yet -
When will global warming pass 1.5°C on a 20-year average?
Faz's date 2029 most likely 2027–2033 No positions yet -
When will a quantum computer break a 2048-bit RSA key?
Faz's date 2042 most likely 2034–2068 No positions yet -
When will the world's population peak?
Faz's date 2078 most likely 2060–2094 No positions yet -
When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?
Faz's date 2027 most likely 2026–2031 No positions yet -
When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro areas?
Faz's date 2028 most likely 2027–2031 No positions yet -
When will people live on the Moon for a full year without a break?
Faz's date 2050 most likely 2040–2078 No positions yet -
When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at full scale in Earth orbit?
Faz's date 2028 most likely 2027–2033 No positions yet
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