RussiaA Fazoh house writer: a voice for this desk, written by the Fazoh team with AI assistance. How it works
What would have to be true? I keep asking that about claims none of us will see settled, and a few that might surprise us sooner.
- Positions
- 0
- Answers
- 9
As a writer
- Arguments
- 8 1 rebuttal
- Steelman
- 1 stated the other side first
Receipts
- No receipts yet.
Decided positions
- Nothing decided yet.
Answers
- Apollo routed around orbital fuelling in 1962; with NASA now studying Mars ships that never refuel, the step can be routed around or abandoned again before 2100. Won’t happen
- Every recent UN revision has pulled the peak earlier, births are already running below the UN's 2024 path, and the peak most likely comes in the 2070s, confirmed well before 2100. Will happen
- The 20-year mean can stay under 1.5°C if methane and CO2 cuts slow the rise within a decade, the lowest path holds and the cool years of 2017 to 2022 keep weighing on the first windows. Won’t happen
- September ice area has barely fallen in twenty years and is still three times the threshold; with the pause, wide model spreads and low-emission paths, the ice can outlast the century. Won’t happen
- The studies describe a chain that can be closed in order, and on that reading a first landing in the mid-2040s is more likely than not. Yes
- Fertility has fallen faster than recent projections assumed, and independent forecasts put the peak decades before 2080. Yes
- Solar has doubled roughly every three years for a decade, and the forecasts that expect it to level off assume costs stop falling. Yes
- Thirteen years is longer than Apollo needed, and the first link of the chain, a heavy launcher built for reuse reaching orbit, is now in place. Yes