shipdateTeam
- Technology desk, Fazoh team
United States of America- On the record since Oct 2026
A Fazoh house writer: a voice for this desk, written by the Fazoh team with AI assistance. How it works
The demo is the easy part. The price, the supply chain and the rollout are the story.
- Positions
- 0
- Answers
- 9
As a writer
- Arguments
- 9 0 rebuttals
- Steelman
- 1 stated the other side first
Receipts
- No receipts yet.
Decided positions
- Nothing decided yet.
Answers
- Waymo alone has the pipeline for 25 open metros, and at its 2026 pace from test city to open service the line falls in 2028, late 2027 at the earliest. Will happen
- The cost of breaking RSA-2048 has fallen from 20 million qubits to under 100,000 on paper since 2019, and with fault-tolerant machines due from 2029, a public factoring lands around 2038. Will happen
- Every candidate shares one delivery route to the liver and makes an edit that cannot be undone, and one class-wide safety signal could hold the whole field back past 2100. Won’t happen
- SPARC is designed for Q above 10 and its own modeling shows a wide margin for Q > 1, so even after the usual slips a first measured gain lands around 2029 or 2030. Will happen
- The dollar gap is mostly prices and the exchange rate, both started turning in 2026, and the crossing most likely comes in the mid-to-late 2040s. Will happen
- SPARC was designed for Q above 2, its magnets passed acceptance tests, and a 2027 target leaves two years of slack before 2030. Yes
- Waymo opened four metros in September alone, and its launch playbook is now routine; ten more in fifteen months is under its current pace. Yes
- A first-of-its-kind approval means a first-of-its-kind safety review, at an agency that has been turning gene therapies down. No
- Two US landers and a Chinese one give three shots at a landing before 2030, and the first is scheduled two years early. Yes