When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year? Faz's date: 2027

Faz's reasons

Reference class: a first-of-a-kind graft trying to pass a durability mark that no earlier graft has reached, in a field where the record has moved fast. Before the Lancet case of a January 2025 Mass General graft, no study had documented a pig kidney working beyond two months in a living person; that graft kept its recipient off dialysis for 271 days, a Xi'an graft worked for 261 days, and on 3 September 2026 eGenesis reported a recipient past nine months and still on study. Every graft whose course has ended stopped before a year, the longest through late microvascular injury after immunosuppression was eased. What weighed most in this ruling is that the graft past nine months on 3 September was placed by early December 2025, so its 365th day falls by early December 2026 if it keeps working; against that, only one of the three grafts that passed eight months has passed nine. Behind it stand the grafts placed in 2026, including United Therapeutics' first EXPAND cohort and a second Xi'an transplant in April, and eGenesis's RESTORE trial from early 2027. The not side is right that no graft has yet been shown to work for a year and that both trials read efficacy at 24 weeks; that is why the range runs to 2031. With several independent grafts in place and more coming, what is open is the year: the ruling is 2027, with a range from 2026 to 2031.

What the ruling rests on

For it happening
On 3 September 2026 eGenesis reported a recipient past nine months without dialysis and still on study, so that graft reaches its 365th day by early December 2026 if it keeps working.

“One patient has surpassed nine months of dialysis independence, establishing a new global record for a genetically engineered porcine kidney transplant, and remains on study.”
eGenesis · Sep 2026
For it happening
Three of the five eGenesis recipients went more than eight months without dialysis.

“Three of these patients have achieved sustained kidney function for more than eight months without the need for dialysis.”
eGenesis · Sep 2026
Against
The longest completed graft, described in The Lancet, failed after immunosuppression was reduced, when microvascular injury and inflammation progressed to organ failure.

“After approximately six months, immunosuppression was reduced in the setting of infection. The xenotransplant subsequently developed microvascular injury and inflammation that progressed to organ failure.”
Mass General Brigham · Sep 2026
Against
The first Xi'an graft worked for 261 days, another long course that ended before a year.

“据了解，2025年3月6日，西京医院已成功开展亚洲首例基因编辑猪-人异种肾移植手术，移植肾在患者体内稳定工作261天”
China Daily (Shaanxi) · May 2026
Against
A 2026 review in Artificial Organs calls antibody-mediated rejection the recurring failure mode, with grafts lost within weeks to months.

“Antibody‐mediated rejection remains the recurring failure mode, and several grafts have been lost within weeks to months.”
Artificial Organs (Wiley) · Aug 2026
For it happening
United Therapeutics made the first transplant of its EXPAND trial in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the study is ongoing.

“The first transplant in this study occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the study is ongoing.”
United Therapeutics (SEC filing) · Aug 2026
For it happening
As of August 2026, United Therapeutics expected the first six-patient EXPAND cohort to be completed in 2026, so several more grafts can reach a year in 2027.

“Rothblatt said the UKidney EXPAND study's initial six-patient cohort is expected to be completed later this year”
Yahoo Finance · Aug 2026
Against
The eGenesis trial assesses efficacy at 24 weeks after transplant, so neither sponsor needs a year of function to call its trial a success.

“The IND supports a Phase 1/2/3 study designed to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of EGEN-2784 at 24 weeks post-transplant in patients with ESKD who are age 50 or older, dialysis-dependent, and on the kidney transplant waitlist.”
eGenesis · Sep 2025

What would change the ruling

A report from Mass General Brigham or eGenesis that the graft past nine months on 3 September 2026 is still working on its 365th day would settle the topic in 2026; a report that it has failed would move the year later.
The first function data from United Therapeutics' EXPAND cohort: grafts working past six months would strengthen 2027, early losses would push the year later.
Whether eGenesis starts its RESTORE trial in the first quarter of 2027 as planned.
A peer-reviewed account of the graft now past nine months, with its biopsy and function data.
A safety event that halts transplants in either trial, such as a pig virus passed to a recipient, would push the year later and widen the range.

The two sides

Every argument takes a side and brings its evidence. Faz weighs them by their sources and reasoning, never by how many agree.

It will happen1 answer It won’t happen1 answer

Sign in to argue a side

The case that it will happen

Nora Ellis Team argued Will happen

@nora_ellis · Rev. 1 · Oct 20, 2026

A graft already past nine months on 3 September 2026 reaches its 365th day by early December 2026 if it keeps working, and the trial grafts placed in 2026 give further chances in 2027.

On the milestone, @replicated wrote that "one patient past nine months is a single observation, not a result." As method, that is right. As timing, it leaves the question open, and this question is about timing.

Start with the primary document. On 3 September 2026 eGenesis reported that one recipient had passed nine months of dialysis independence and remained on study ^[1]. A graft past nine months on that date was placed no later than early December 2025, so its 365th day falls no later than early December 2026. The same release says three of its five recipients went more than eight months without dialysis ^[1]. Before the Lancet case, no study had documented a xenograft surviving beyond two months ^[2].

If that graft fails, others are already in place. United Therapeutics made the first EXPAND transplant in the fourth quarter of 2025 ^[3] and, as of August, expected the first six-patient cohort to be completed this year ^[4]. Xijing Hospital placed its second gene-edited pig kidney on 23 April 2026 ^[5]. Any of those grafts that keeps working reaches its year mark in 2027, and eGenesis plans its RESTORE trial from the first quarter of 2027 ^[1].

The other side's strongest point is that every graft whose course has ended stopped short of a year, and the Lancet case shows the mechanism: microvascular injury after immunosuppression was reduced ^[2]. I accept that. It argues for a later year, not for no year, in a field whose record went from under two months to past nine in about two and a half years.

I defend late 2026 if the record graft holds, and 2027 or 2028 if it does not. This would change if the record graft fails and none of the grafts placed in 2026 passes six months.

[1] eGenesis Announces Clinical Update in Ongoing Expanded Access Study of EGEN-2784 in Patients with Kidney Failure · eGenesis, Sep 3, 2026 One patient has surpassed nine months of dialysis independence, establishing a new global record for a genetically engineered porcine kidney transplant, and remains on study.
[2] How a pig-kidney xenotransplant served as a successful bridge to human transplant for patient with end-stage kidney disease · Mass General Brigham, Sep 3, 2026 No previous studies have documented xenograft survival beyond two months, a successful “bridge” to receipt of a human organ, or the mechanisms leading to late xenograft failure in living recipients.
[3] United Therapeutics Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 · United Therapeutics (SEC filing), Aug 5, 2026 The first transplant in this study occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the study is ongoing.
[4] United Therapeutics Q2 Earnings Call Highlights · Yahoo Finance, Aug 5, 2026 Rothblatt said the UKidney EXPAND study's initial six-patient cohort is expected to be completed later this year
[5] Xijing Hospital performs second gene-edited pig kidney transplant · China Daily (Shaanxi), May 24, 2026 4月23日，手术如期开展。术中，窦科峰团队精准操作，泌尿外科、肝胆外科专家默契配合，顺利获取由成都中科奥格生物科技有限公司提供的DPF医用基因编辑猪供肾

Cite

Cite this answer

Ellis, N. (2026, October 20). A graft already past nine months on 3 September 2026 reaches its 365th day by early December 2026 if it keeps working, and the trial grafts placed in 2026 give further chances in 2027. [Answer to "When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/pig-kidney-one-year-2100/questions/pig-kidney-one-year-2100-sides#answer-195

The case that it won’t

replicated Team argued Won’t happen

@replicated · Rev. 1 · Oct 20, 2026

Every pig kidney whose course has been reported to its end stopped before a year, from a failure mode no regimen has yet been shown to overcome, and neither trial is designed to show a year.

I take the side that is harder to defend over seventy-three years, and I take it on method.

Measured. Every gene-edited pig kidney in a living recipient whose course has been reported to its end stopped short of a year. In Xi'an the first graft worked for 261 days ^[1]. At Mass General the longest completed graft, described in a peer-reviewed paper, was lost after immunosuppression was reduced, when microvascular injury and inflammation progressed to organ failure ^[2].

Not measured. The record case is one sentence in a sponsor's release: a recipient past nine months and still on study ^[3]. No creatinine values, no biopsy findings and no date of transplant were given. The data suggest a working graft; they do not show one at a year.

Designed. The eGenesis trial assesses efficacy at 24 weeks post-transplant ^[4]. A run of 365 days is not what a sponsor needs in order to call such a trial a success.

Concluded. A 2026 review in Artificial Organs calls antibody-mediated rejection the recurring failure mode, with grafts lost within weeks to months ^[5]. A year requires an immunosuppression regimen strong enough to hold that rejection for twelve months and light enough to let an infection be treated without setting off the dose-reduction-associated microvascular-injury sequence that ended the longest graft, and no recipient has yet been shown to have both at once.

Nora Ellis has the arithmetic right: a graft past nine months on 3 September reaches day 365 by early December if it keeps working. I do not dispute it, and if it does, this position is finished. What would settle it is a centre's report or a paper showing graft function at day 365; until one exists, the data are consistent with a ceiling below a year.

[1] Xijing Hospital performs second gene-edited pig kidney transplant · China Daily (Shaanxi), May 24, 2026 据了解，2025年3月6日，西京医院已成功开展亚洲首例基因编辑猪-人异种肾移植手术，移植肾在患者体内稳定工作261天
[2] How a pig-kidney xenotransplant served as a successful bridge to human transplant for patient with end-stage kidney disease · Mass General Brigham, Sep 3, 2026 After approximately six months, immunosuppression was reduced in the setting of infection. The xenotransplant subsequently developed microvascular injury and inflammation that progressed to organ failure.
[3] eGenesis Announces Clinical Update in Ongoing Expanded Access Study of EGEN-2784 in Patients with Kidney Failure · eGenesis, Sep 3, 2026 One patient has surpassed nine months of dialysis independence, establishing a new global record for a genetically engineered porcine kidney transplant, and remains on study.
[4] eGenesis Announces IND Clearance for EGEN-2784 in Kidney Transplant and Landmark Patient Updates in Ongoing Expanded Access Study · eGenesis, Sep 8, 2025 The IND supports a Phase 1/2/3 study designed to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of EGEN-2784 at 24 weeks post-transplant in patients with ESKD who are age 50 or older, dialysis-dependent, and on the kidney transplant waitlist.
[5] Kidney Xenotransplantation Enters the Clinical Trial Era · Artificial Organs (Wiley), Aug 6, 2026 Antibody‐mediated rejection remains the recurring failure mode, and several grafts have been lost within weeks to months.

Open review flags Citation needed · 1

Cite

Cite this answer

replicated (2026, October 20). Every pig kidney whose course has been reported to its end stopped before a year, from a failure mode no regimen has yet been shown to overcome, and neither trial is designed to show a year. [Answer to "When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/pig-kidney-one-year-2100/questions/pig-kidney-one-year-2100-sides#answer-196

What this is about

Kidneys from gene-edited pigs have been transplanted into a small number of living patients in the United States and China since March 2024, under expanded access and, since late 2025, in a formal trial. No such graft has yet been reported working for a year. The longest course reported to its end is 271 days, a Mass General graft placed in January 2025 and described in The Lancet in September 2026; a graft in Xi'an worked for 261 days. As of 3 September 2026, eGenesis reported that one recipient had passed nine months without dialysis and remained on study. United Therapeutics made the first transplant of its EXPAND trial in the fourth quarter of 2025 and, as of August 2026, expected its first six-patient cohort to be completed that year; eGenesis expects to start its 33-patient RESTORE trial in the first quarter of 2027. Both trials read efficacy at 24 weeks. What decides the question is whether a graft can avoid the late rejection and microvascular injury that ended the longest grafts so far.

What counts: Happens on the 365th consecutive day on which a living human recipient of a kidney from a gene-edited pig is free of dialysis with that kidney in place and functioning, as reported by the transplant centre, the trial sponsor (such as eGenesis or United Therapeutics) or a peer-reviewed paper. The 365 days are counted from the day of transplant or, if dialysis was needed after the operation, from the last dialysis session. The date that counts is the 365th day, even when the report comes later; any country counts, and one recipient is enough. Pig kidneys transplanted together with other pig tissue, such as a thymokidney, count. Does not count: decedent (brain-dead) recipients kept on support for research; days after the xenograft is removed or after dialysis resumes; kidneys from pigs without gene edits, from other species or grown from human cells; pig kidneys used outside the body. Source: the transplant centre's or sponsor's announcement, or the peer-reviewed paper describing the case.

The date updates itself wherever it is shown: put it in an article, a slide or a paper.

Embed (HTML)

<a href="https://www.fazoh.com/when/pig-kidney-one-year"><img src="https://www.fazoh.com/when/pig-kidney-one-year/badge.svg" alt="When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year? · Faz's date on Fazoh" width="440" height="96"></a>

Cite (APA)

Fazoh. (2026). When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year? Faz's date: 2027 (2026–2031). Retrieved 3 November 2026, from https://www.fazoh.com/when/pig-kidney-one-year

Cite (BibTeX)

@misc{fazoh_pig_kidney_one_year,
  title = {When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?},
  author = <?php echo e(Fazoh); ?>,
  year = {2026},
  note = {Faz's date: 2027, most likely 2026–2031},
  howpublished = {\url{https://www.fazoh.com/when/pig-kidney-one-year}}
}

Science When will the world go a full calendar year with no wild poliovirus cases? 2031 Faz's date · most likely 2028–2046 Science When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body? 2027 Faz's date · most likely 2027–2030 Space When will people live on the Moon for a full year without a break? 2050 Faz's date · most likely 2040–2078 Technology When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro areas? 2028 Faz's date · most likely 2027–2031

Sources in the debate

eGenesis Announces Clinical Update in Ongoing Expanded Access Study of EGEN-2784 in Patients with Kidney Failure eGenesis · 2026
How a pig-kidney xenotransplant served as a successful bridge to human transplant for patient with end-stage kidney disease Mass General Brigham · 2026
Xijing Hospital performs second gene-edited pig kidney transplant China Daily (Shaanxi) · 2026
United Therapeutics Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 United Therapeutics (SEC filing) · 2026
United Therapeutics Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Yahoo Finance · 2026
eGenesis Announces IND Clearance for EGEN-2784 in Kidney Transplant and Landmark Patient Updates in Ongoing Expanded Access Study eGenesis · 2025
Kidney Xenotransplantation Enters the Clinical Trial Era Artificial Organs (Wiley) · 2026

How Faz rules

Faz is a referee, not a forecaster. People take positions and defend them with evidence; Faz weighs the sources and arguments on both sides, the questions on the road to it, official data and what has changed in the world, here and on the wider web, and rules a date with a range. While the evidence is too weak it gives no date: the question is watching, and stays open for debate. It rules at most once a month, sooner only when something major happens, gives its reasons every time, and every ruling stays on the record. How it weighs each piece is its own. When it happens, the question goes into the archive, where Faz's dates are set against the real one. More on How Faz works.

Menu

Explore

Desks

Fazoh

Appearance

When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?

Faz's reasons

What the ruling rests on

What would change the ruling

The two sides

The case that it will happen

A graft already past nine months on 3 September 2026 reaches its 365th day by early December 2026 if it keeps working, and the trial grafts placed in 2026 give further chances in 2027.

The case that it won’t

Every pig kidney whose course has been reported to its end stopped before a year, from a failure mode no regimen has yet been shown to overcome, and neither trial is designed to show a year.

Your position

What this is about

Sources in the debate

How Faz rules

When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?

Faz's reasons

What the ruling rests on

What would change the ruling

The two sides

The case that it will happen

A graft already past nine months on 3 September 2026 reaches its 365th day by early December 2026 if it keeps working, and the trial grafts placed in 2026 give further chances in 2027.

The case that it won’t

Every pig kidney whose course has been reported to its end stopped before a year, from a failure mode no regimen has yet been shown to overcome, and neither trial is designed to show a year.

Your position

What this is about

Share, embed or cite

More questions

Sources in the debate

How Faz rules