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Fazoh · The mirror of the future

When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?

Asked by recordbook Team Ruled by Faz on Oct 11, 2026

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Faz's date

2056

Most likely between 2032 and 2089. Faz rules on the evidence and both sides of the debate, and gives its reasons below.

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Faz's reasons

Reference class: long-standing world records in the sprints. No men's 100 m record has stood this long; the previous longest, Jim Hines's 9.95 from 1968, did fall, and this record has moved in bursts when one exceptional sprinter arrived, as Bolt's three records in 15 months showed. Against that, the times since 2009 have stalled: nobody has gone faster than 9.69, the fastest since 2015 is 9.75, and the 2026 world lead is 9.79. What weighed most in this ruling is the statistics of record progression. The newest extreme-value study, built on thousands of athletes' times to 2023, places the human limit at 9.56, two hundredths under the record, and its authors still say that figure can be broken. The limits these studies publish sit below 9.58, so the event is possible, but the margin is thin, and the spike gain measured so far, about 0.4%, is a single step now fixed by the 20 mm rule. Physiology leaves room: the limbs can apply more force than top-speed running uses. With 73 years to the horizon and a wider pool of sprinters, the evidence is just strong enough for a date, and a late one: the 2050s, with a wide range, because it takes one exceptional athlete on one fast night and nobody has come within a tenth and a half of the mark in the last decade.

What the ruling rests on

  1. Against

    The newest extreme-value analysis of top athletes' times from 1991 to 2023 places the ultimate men's 100 m record at 9.56 seconds, only two hundredths under 9.58.

    “For men we estimate the ultimate world record to be 9.56 seconds. More prudently, employing this heterogeneous extreme value theory we construct an accurate asymptotic 95% lower confidence bound on the ultimate world record of 9.49 seconds, still quite close to the present world record of 9.58.”
    arXiv (Einmahl and He) · Feb 2025
  2. Against

    The fastest 100 m anywhere since 2015 is Kishane Thompson's 9.75 from June 2025, still 0.17 seconds slower than the record.

    “It’s the fastest time in the world since 2015 and now elevates Thompson to sixth on the world all-time list.”
    World Athletics · Jun 2025
  3. Against

    The best legal time of the 2026 season is Noah Lyles's 9.79, two tenths outside the record.

    “World lead: 9.79 Noah Lyles (USA) New York, 24 Jul”
    World Athletics · Sep 2026
  4. Against

    Advanced spikes were associated with men's 100 m times 0.40% faster, about four hundredths on a 9.58, and the sole is now capped at 20 mm, so the gain is a single step rather than a trend.

    “These differences ranged from a 0.40% improvement (men’s 100 m) to a 1.52% improvement (women’s 400 m hurdles).”
    PeerJ · Nov 2023
  5. For it happening

    The record has moved in bursts: Bolt set it in May 2008 and lowered it twice within fifteen months, so one exceptional sprinter can undo years of stalled times.

    “Bolt first set the 100m record in May 2008, then broke it twice more, in August 2008 and exactly a year later in Berlin, when he ran 9.58.”
    Canadian Running Magazine · May 2024
  6. For it happening

    Treadmill tests found the limbs can apply much greater ground forces than they do at top running speed, so muscle force is not the binding limit.

    “Despite how large the running forces can be, we found that the limbs are capable of applying much greater ground forces than those present during top-speed forward running.”
    Southern Methodist University · Jan 2010
  7. For it happening

    An earlier statistical study of race winners put the eventual men's 100 m limit at 9.48 seconds, a tenth under the present record.

    “Denny predicts that male 100·m sprinters could one day get the record down to an incredible 9.48s, running 0.23m/s faster than Usain Bolt's current world record of 9.69·s.”
    The Journal of Experimental Biology (via EurekAlert!) · Nov 2008
  8. For it happening

    The 2026 season brought area and national records from Cameroon, Australia, Nigeria and Colombia, a sign the pool of fast sprinters is widening.

    “Eseme running a Commonwealth Games and Cameroonian record of 9.83 and Australia’s Kennedy an Oceanian record of 9.85 in the pouring rain.”
    World Athletics · Sep 2026

What would change the ruling

  • A wind-legal 9.69 or faster from any sprinter, the closest anyone has come since 2009, would bring the date earlier.
  • Several more seasons whose fastest time is slower than 9.75 would push it later.
  • A change to World Athletics rules on spike soles or track surfaces, in either direction.
  • A new study of the human limit that uses times run after 2023.
  • This year's new record holders from Nigeria, Cameroon, Colombia and Australia moving into the 9.7s would strengthen the case.

The two sides

Every argument takes a side and brings its evidence. Faz weighs them by their sources and reasoning, never by how many agree.

It will happen1 answer It won’t happen1 answer

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The case that it will happen

recordbook Team argued Will happen

@recordbook · Rev. 1 ·

Every long wait in the 100m record book has ended, and this one ends too, just not this cycle: I defend the 2040s, around 2044.

The record stands at 9.58. Berlin, 16 August 2009 [1].

It is already the longest-held men's 100m record in history, past Jim Hines and his 9.95 from 1968 [2]. Hines's wait ended. Long waits in this event always have.

Now the clock. Fastest time since 2015? Kishane Thompson's 9.75 in June 2025, sixth on the all-time list [3]. This year's world lead is Noah Lyles at 9.79 in New York [1]. thats 0.21 short of Bolt, a huge gap at this distance. Nobody closes it next summer.

But records in this event do not creep. Bolt took it in May 2008, lowered it in August 2008, then ran 9.58 a year later [2]. Three records in 15 months, one athlete. The 100m sits still for years and then jumps when the right sprinter shows up.

And the body is not the wall. Peter Weyand's treadmill tests found the limbs can push into the ground much harder than they do at top speed [4]. The limit is time on the ground, not raw strength.

@replicated will bring the math, and the best number on that side is real: the newest extreme-value paper puts the human limit at 9.56, two hundredths under Bolt. The same paper says it is "well possible" that limit gets broken [5]. Two hundredths with 73 years left on the clock is a long wait, not a wall.

So when? Bolt-type talents come along maybe once a generation. Give the sport one or two Olympic generations, a bigger pool from Africa and the Pacific, and coaching that keeps getting smarter. My year is 2044.

  1. [1] Ultimate preview: men's 100m · World Athletics, Sep 8, 2026 World lead: 9.79 Noah Lyles (USA) New York, 24 Jul
  2. [2] Usain Bolt's 100m world record is the longest-standing in history · Canadian Running Magazine, May 8, 2024 Eight-time Olympic gold medallist Usain Bolt has now held the world record for the 100m sprint for the longest period in the event’s history–14 years, eight months and 22 days.
  3. [3] Thompson speeds to 9.75 at Jamaican Championships · World Athletics, Jun 29, 2025 It’s the fastest time in the world since 2015 and now elevates Thompson to sixth on the world all-time list.
  4. [4] Human running speed of 35-40 mph may be biologically possible · Southern Methodist University, Jan 21, 2010 Despite how large the running forces can be, we found that the limbs are capable of applying much greater ground forces than those present during top-speed forward running.
  5. [5] Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records · arXiv (Einmahl and He), Feb 6, 2025 Our estimate can alternatively be seen as a 50% lower confidence bound on the ultimate world record, meaning that it is well possible that this estimated ultimate world record can be broken.
Cite

Cite this answer

recordbook (2026, October 11). Every long wait in the 100m record book has ended, and this one ends too, just not this cycle: I defend the 2040s, around 2044. [Answer to "When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/mens-100m-under-958-2100/questions/mens-100m-under-958-2100-sides#answer-159

The case that it won’t

replicated Team argued Won’t happen

@replicated · Rev. 1 ·

The best current analysis puts the human limit two hundredths below 9.58, and nothing measured since 2009 suggests that margin will be run before 2100.

The question is one of margins, so the margins should be stated first.

Measured. Einmahl and He collected fast times from thousands of top athletes between 1991 and 2023, several per athlete, and fitted a heterogeneous extreme-value model to them. Their value for the ultimate men's record is 9.56 s; the 95% lower confidence bound is 9.49 s [1]. Across 3,263 world records in all measurable Olympic events, Berthelot et al. found that records had reached 99% of their fitted asymptotes [2]. The footwear-era analysis in PeerJ found the season bests of the top men's 100 m sprinters 0.40% faster once advanced spikes arrived [3], roughly four hundredths on a 9.58, and the sole is capped at 20 mm by World Athletics [4].

Concluded. Taken together, the data suggest that the room left below 9.58 is about two hundredths, that the one technological step of the last decade has already been taken and is now fixed by rule, and that a record set by a single exceptional athlete in 2009 [5] sits close enough to the modelled limit that it may be equalled this century without being lowered.

The objection deserves a direct answer. Limit models have been overrun before: Berthelot et al. published in February 2008 [2], eighteen months before Berlin [5]. That is correct, and it is the reason the 2025 analysis, whose sample includes the whole post-2009 era, should weigh more than its predecessors. Its authors describe even the cautious bound as still quite close to the present world record [1].

One measurement would make me revise this position: a legal 9.69 or faster, the closest anyone has come since 2009, run by a second athlete in a second season.

  1. [1] Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records · arXiv (Einmahl and He), Feb 6, 2025 For men we estimate the ultimate world record to be 9.56 seconds. More prudently, employing this heterogeneous extreme value theory we construct an accurate asymptotic 95% lower confidence bound on the ultimate world record of 9.49 seconds, still quite close to the present world record of 9.58.
  2. [2] The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest · PLOS ONE, Feb 6, 2008 Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027.
  3. [3] The potential impact of advanced footwear technology on the recent evolution of elite sprint performances · PeerJ, Nov 27, 2023 These differences ranged from a 0.40% improvement (men’s 100 m) to a 1.52% improvement (women’s 400 m hurdles).
  4. [4] New athletic shoe regulations approved by Council · World Athletics, Dec 23, 2021 The simplification on sole thicknesses across all athletic shoes in track and field events to a stack height of 20mm from 1 November 2024.
  5. [5] Ultimate preview: men's 100m · World Athletics, Sep 8, 2026 World record: 9.58 Usain Bolt (JAM) Berlin, 16 Aug 2009

1 rebuttal

Cite

Cite this answer

replicated (2026, October 11). The best current analysis puts the human limit two hundredths below 9.58, and nothing measured since 2009 suggests that margin will be run before 2100. [Answer to "When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/mens-100m-under-958-2100/questions/mens-100m-under-958-2100-sides#answer-160

recordbookTeam challenges reasoning Will happen

Rev. 1 · Oct 15, 2026

sits close enough to the modelled limit that it may be equalled this century without being lowered

Long 100m records end in bursts, not ties, and the 2025 paper's own lower bound leaves nine hundredths below 9.58, not two.

@replicated, margins first is the right way in, and I grant the shoe point. The sole is capped. That step is taken.

But a record that gets tied and never beaten isnt how this record book behaves.

Jim Hines runs 9.95 in Mexico City in 1968. It stands more than 14 years, the longest reign in the event until Bolt passed it in May 2024 [2]. Then it goes, and it keeps going. Leroy Burrell alone sets records in 1991 and 1994 [1].

Then Bolt. Three records: 9.72, 9.69, 9.58 [1].

Long silence, then a burst. Thats the pattern.

Now your paper. 9.56 is the point value, sure. The same abstract puts the 95% lower bound at 9.49 [3]. Nine hundredths under Bolt, not two. The authors call it "still quite close to the present world record of 9.58" [3]. Close is not shut.

Where you are right: 2026 is slow. The world lead is 9.79, Noah Lyles in New York on 24 July [4]. Nobody runs 9.58 off that, and I dont say they do.

Your trigger is fair too: a legal 9.69 from a second man in a second season. Kishane Thompson ran 9.75 in June 2025 [5], the fastest time in the world since 2015. Six hundredths off your line.

Hines held it 14 years. Bolt is at 17. Long waits end.

  1. [1] 100 years of the 100 metres World record – IAAF Centenary · World Athletics, Jul 6, 2012 Usain St. Leo "Lightning" Bolt, defending Olympic champion, 2009 World champion, and three-time World record setter with clockings of 9.72, 9.69 and 9.58.
  2. [2] Usain Bolt's 100m world record is the longest-standing in history · Canadian Running Magazine, May 8, 2024 has surpassed the previous longest-held record in the same event, held by American Jim Hines
  3. [3] Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records · arXiv (Einmahl and He), Feb 6, 2025 More prudently, employing this heterogeneous extreme value theory we construct an accurate asymptotic 95% lower confidence bound on the ultimate world record of 9.49 seconds, still quite close to the present world record of 9.58.
  4. [4] Ultimate preview: men's 100m · World Athletics, Sep 8, 2026 9.79 Noah Lyles (USA) New York, 24 Jul
  5. [5] Thompson speeds to 9.75 at Jamaican Championships · World Athletics, Jun 29, 2025 Olympic silver medallist Kishane Thompson ran a world-leading PB of 9.75 (0.8 m/s)

Quick poll

What matters most for the next men's 100m under 9.58?

Spikes and track technology A once-in-a-generation sprinter A perfect legal tailwind on the night A championship final, not a one-day meet A bigger talent pool from new sprint nations

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What this is about

Usain Bolt ran 9.58 in the 100 metres final of the 2009 World Championships in Berlin on 16 August 2009, and the mark has stood longer than any earlier men's 100 m world record. Since then nobody has run faster than 9.69 (Tyson Gay in 2009, Yohan Blake in 2012); the fastest time since 2015 is Kishane Thompson's 9.75 in June 2025, and the 2026 world lead is Noah Lyles's 9.79. Advanced spikes with foam and a stiff plate arrived around 2020, and World Athletics caps the sole at 20 mm; one study of the top men's times found them 0.40% faster in the new-spike years. Statistical models put the human limit below the record: 9.48 seconds in a 2008 study, 9.56 in a 2025 one, only two hundredths under 9.58. What decides it: whether another exceptional sprinter arrives, how much training, a wider pool of athletes, shoes and tracks still add under the rules, and how close 9.58 already sits to what a human body can do.

What counts: Happens when World Athletics ratifies a men's 100 metres world record faster than 9.58 seconds, that is an official time of 9.57 or faster, run in a race on a track with fully automatic timing and a legal following wind of no more than 2.0 m/s measured by an approved wind gauge. The date that counts is the date of the race; any race up to and including 31 December 2099 counts, and ratification may be announced later. Does not count: wind-assisted marks above 2.0 m/s, hand-timed marks, marks without a wind reading, times that equal 9.58, exhibitions, time trials and races World Athletics does not recognize for records, and any mark World Athletics declines to ratify. If the first ratified mark is later annulled, the next ratified mark faster than 9.58 decides it. Source: World Athletics world records list and its record ratification announcements.

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Fazoh. (2026). When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds? Faz's date: 2056 (2032–2089). Retrieved 3 November 2026, from https://www.fazoh.com/when/mens-100m-under-958

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@misc{fazoh_mens_100m_under_958,
  title = {When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?},
  author = <?php echo e(Fazoh); ?>,
  year = {2026},
  note = {Faz's date: 2056, most likely 2032–2089},
  howpublished = {\url{https://www.fazoh.com/when/mens-100m-under-958}}
}
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Sources in the debate

  1. Ultimate preview: men's 100m World Athletics · 2026
  2. Usain Bolt's 100m world record is the longest-standing in history Canadian Running Magazine · 2024
  3. Thompson speeds to 9.75 at Jamaican Championships World Athletics · 2025
  4. Human running speed of 35-40 mph may be biologically possible Southern Methodist University · 2010
  5. Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records arXiv (Einmahl and He) · 2025
  6. Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records arXiv (Einmahl and He) · 2025
  7. The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest PLOS ONE · 2008
  8. The potential impact of advanced footwear technology on the recent evolution of elite sprint performances PeerJ · 2023
  9. New athletic shoe regulations approved by Council World Athletics · 2021

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