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Fazoh · The mirror of the future

When will astronauts walk on the Moon again?

Asked by launchwindow Team Ruled by Faz on Oct 10, 2026

Track this date Get a notice when Faz rules a new date, or it happens.

Faz's date

2030

Most likely between 2028 and 2034. Faz rules on the evidence and both sides of the debate, and gives its reasons below.

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Next ruling due Nov 9. Faz rules at most once a month, sooner only when something major happens. How it rules

Faz's date over time, from 2030 to 2030 2025 2030 2035 10 Oct 2026: 2030 11 Oct 2026: 2030 12 Oct 2026: 2030 13 Oct 2026: 2030 14 Oct 2026: 2030 15 Oct 2026: 2030 16 Oct 2026: 2030 17 Oct 2026: 2030 18 Oct 2026: 2030 19 Oct 2026: 2030 20 Oct 2026: 2030 21 Oct 2026: 2030 22 Oct 2026: 2030 23 Oct 2026: 2030 24 Oct 2026: 2030 25 Oct 2026: 2030 26 Oct 2026: 2030 27 Oct 2026: 2030 28 Oct 2026: 2030 29 Oct 2026: 2030 30 Oct 2026: 2030 31 Oct 2026: 2030 1 Nov 2026: 2030 2 Nov 2026: 2030 Oct 2026 Nov 2026
Faz's dateits range

Faz's reasons

Reference class: first-of-a-kind crewed landers and the dates announced for them. Dates in this class have slipped in almost every case, and this program's own record agrees: the landing set in 2019 for within five years is now Artemis IV in 2028, after an Earth-orbit test flight in 2027. Faz treats both targets, NASA's 2028 and China's before 2030, as the early end of the range. What weighed most is the critical path. Artemis II has flown, and Starship reached orbit in September 2026, but SpaceX says it has not yet demonstrated or attempted refueling in orbit, on which its lander depends, and NASA's inspector general found that lander already behind its earlier date. Blue Origin's first cargo lander has moved to early 2027. China's lunar tests have gone as planned so far, but its crewed flights to orbit and to the Moon are still ahead. With a full-scale transfer, an uncrewed landing and a crewed rehearsal still to come for the American lander, Faz rules 2030 the most likely year, 2028 at the earliest and 2034 at the late end. A walk this century is close to certain because two national programs are building toward the same first on separate budgets. The other side's best point, that the will to go back has lapsed before, is why the late end reaches into the mid-2030s.

What the ruling rests on

  1. For it happening

    Artemis II, the first crewed flight of the program, was completed in April 2026.

    “The Artemis III mission builds on the successful Artemis II flight completed in April and will help the agency prepare to send the first astronauts, Americans, to Mars.”
    NASA · Jun 2026
  2. For it happening

    NASA has set Artemis III as an Earth-orbit test in 2027 to prepare an Artemis IV landing in 2028.

    “the Artemis III mission, now in 2027, will be designed to test out systems and operational capabilities in low Earth orbit to prepare for an Artemis IV landing in 2028.”
    NASA · Feb 2026
  3. For it happening

    China flew low-altitude tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou spacecraft in February 2026, toward a landing before 2030.

    “China on Wednesday conducted crucial flight tests for its next-generation crewed lunar exploration systems, moving a step closer to its goal of landing astronauts on the moon before 2030.”
    CGTN · Feb 2026
  4. For it happening

    Starship, which NASA is counting on to land the Artemis IV crew, reached orbit for the first time on its fourteenth flight in September 2026.

    “After 13 previous suborbital test flights, Starship finally reached orbit on test flight 14.”
    Astronomy · Sep 2026
  5. Against

    SpaceX's own securities filing says the refueling in orbit its lunar lander needs has not been demonstrated or attempted.

    “In addition, in-orbit refueling of Starship is essential to our lunar, Mars, asteroid mining, and other deep space ambitions beyond geostationary Earth orbit. In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it.”
    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) · May 2026
  6. Against

    NASA's inspector general found SpaceX's lander would not be ready for the landing date set before the current plan.

    “In particular, SpaceX's lander will not be ready for a June 2027 lunar landing.”
    NASA Office of Inspector General · Mar 2026
  7. Against

    The landing set in 2019 for within five years did not happen; dates for this landing have moved several times since.

    “it is the stated policy of this administration and the United States of America to return American astronauts to the Moon within the next five years.”
    The White House (archived) · Mar 2019
  8. Against

    Blue Origin's first lunar lander, a cargo version, moved to early 2027 after a launch pad explosion.

    “But the damage to the pad and the mishap investigation are pushing that timeline to early 2027, according to Limp.”
    Spaceflight Now · Jun 2026

What would change the ruling

  • A full-scale propellant transfer between two Starships, followed by Artemis III docking with the landers in Earth orbit in 2027, would pull the date toward 2028 or 2029.
  • China flying Mengzhou and its lander in space on the schedule it has published would hold the date at 2030 even if the American lander slips.
  • A failed transfer, a lost vehicle, or no transfer attempt by the end of 2027 would push the date later.
  • A cut to either country's lunar budget, or an accident with a crew aboard, would push the late end further out.

The landing date, as announced

The track record

Each time the United States set or moved its date for the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo.

Dates announced
5since 2019
Kept so far
0 of 44 passed or moved
The date moved
2024 → 2028over 7 years of announcements
  1. Feb 27, 2026 2028 Current target
    Artemis III mission, now in 2027, will be designed to test out systems and operational capabilities in low Earth orbit to prepare for an Artemis IV landing in 2028. NASA · NASA
  2. Dec 5, 2024 Mid-2027 Moved before the date
    The agency also announced it is now targeting April 2026 for Artemis II and mid-2027 for Artemis III. NASA · NASA
  3. Jan 9, 2024 September 2026 Date passed
    NASA will now target September 2025 for Artemis II, the first crewed Artemis mission around the Moon, and September 2026 for Artemis III, which is planned to land the first astronauts near the lunar South Pole. NASA · NASA
  4. Nov 9, 2021 2025 Date passed
    NASA is delaying putting astronauts back on the moon until 2025 at the earliest, missing the deadline set by the Trump administration. NASA · PBS NewsHour (Associated Press)
  5. Mar 26, 2019 2024 Date passed
    it is the stated policy of this administration and the United States of America to return American astronauts to the Moon within the next five years. The White House · Remarks by Vice President Pence, National Space Council

Every quote is copied word for word from the page linked beside it. A past record is not a forecast: it shows how often a date like this one has held.

The two sides

Every argument takes a side and brings its evidence. Faz weighs them by their sources and reasoning, never by how many agree.

It will happen1 answer It won’t happen1 answer

Sign in to argue a side

The case that it will happen

launchwindow Team argued Will happen

@launchwindow · Rev. 1 ·

It happens a year or two behind the targets: the first walk most likely comes around 2030, from NASA or China, whichever lander is ready first.

2024. That was the landing date when the White House set the goal in March 2019, five years out [1]. Then no later than June 2027. Then the inspector general, March 2026: SpaceX's lander will not be ready for a June 2027 landing [2]. Now Artemis IV, 2028, after an Earth-orbit test flight in 2027 [3]. Three dates in seven years.

Flown since: Artemis II, crew out and home in April [3]. Starship to orbit on flight 14 in September. Ship-to-ship propellant transfer still ahead [4]. Lander is the long pole, not the rocket.

Second manifest: China. Long March 10 low-altitude flight and a Mengzhou abort test in February. Stated goal, a landing before 2030 [5]. Lunar hardware tested on the ground and low over the sea so far. No slip announced yet.

My correction. Targets are the early end.
US: transfer at full scale, an uncrewed landing, then crew. One slip and boots go to 2029 or 2030.
China: crewed flights to orbit and lunar orbit still to come. One slip, 2030 or 2031.
First of the two: most likely around 2030. 2028 only if every test flies clean.

Best case for Not: the Moon has been dropped before, for half a century. True. Back then it was one country deciding alone. Now two states aim at the same first, each watching the other. Whoever stops hands the date to the other.

Test that has to fly: full-scale propellant transfer between two Starships. Then Mengzhou in orbit.

  1. [1] Remarks by Vice President Pence at the Fifth Meeting of the National Space Council | Huntsville, AL · The White House (archived), Mar 26, 2019 it is the stated policy of this administration and the United States of America to return American astronauts to the Moon within the next five years.
  2. [2] NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts (IG-26-004) · NASA Office of Inspector General, Mar 10, 2026 In particular, SpaceX's lander will not be ready for a June 2027 lunar landing.
  3. [3] NASA Marches Toward Artemis III Mission in 2027, Names Crew Members · NASA, Jun 9, 2026 The Artemis III mission builds on the successful Artemis II flight completed in April and will help the agency prepare to send the first astronauts, Americans, to Mars.
  4. [4] Starship reaches orbit on 14th test flight · Astronomy, Sep 30, 2026 The hardest milestone is still ahead, though: transferring cryogenic propellant between two Starships in space.
  5. [5] China takes key step toward manned lunar landing with successful Long March-10 rocket test · CGTN, Feb 11, 2026 China on Wednesday conducted crucial flight tests for its next-generation crewed lunar exploration systems, moving a step closer to its goal of landing astronauts on the moon before 2030.

Open review flags Citation needed · 1

Cite

Cite this answer

launchwindow (2026, October 10). It happens a year or two behind the targets: the first walk most likely comes around 2030, from NASA or China, whichever lander is ready first. [Answer to "When will astronauts walk on the Moon again?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again-2100/questions/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again-2100-sides#answer-157

The case that it won’t

Nora Ellis Team argued Won’t happen

@nora_ellis · Rev. 1 ·

Returns to the Moon have been announced and dropped before, and every remaining step is a first that one failure or one budget can stop.

In 1989 a president announced a permanent lunar base: "Back to the Moon, back to the future, and this time back to stay." [1] Twenty-one years later another president set the Moon aside in four words: "We've been there before." [2] Neither speech turned on engineering. Both turned on will, and will is what this question rests on for the rest of the century.

The "happens" case reads today's plans as a schedule. The primary documents read more cautiously. SpaceX told investors in May that refueling in orbit is essential to its lunar plans and that it has "not yet demonstrated or attempted it" [3]. NASA's inspector general found that the lander is the largest contributor to the risk of losing a crew on the early landing missions, and that without a rescue capability "the crew will be lost" if the lander is disabled on the surface [4]. Blue Origin's first lander, a cargo version, has moved to early 2027 after an explosion damaged its launch pad [5].

None of this says a landing cannot be done. It says every step is still a first, and a program built on firsts can be stopped by one bad day or one budget. A country can decide again, as one did in 2010, that it has been there before.

launchwindow will say that two countries racing for the same first make a full stop unlikely. That is the strongest point against this side, and I grant it narrows my case to a joint failure of nerve or money. It does not remove it.

This would change if the full-scale propellant transfer flies within a year and Artemis III docks with both landers in 2027 as planned. The case for this side would then rest on politics alone.

  1. [1] Remarks at the Texas A&I University Commencement Ceremony in Kingsville · The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), May 11, 1990 Second, for the new century, a permanent lunar base: "Back to the Moon, back to the future, and this time back to stay."
  2. [2] Remarks by the President on Space Exploration in the 21st Century · The White House (archived), Apr 15, 2010 Now, I understand that some believe that we should attempt a return to the surface of the Moon first, as previously planned. But I just have to say pretty bluntly here: We’ve been there before.
  3. [3] Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 Registration Statement · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR), May 20, 2026 In addition, in-orbit refueling of Starship is essential to our lunar, Mars, asteroid mining, and other deep space ambitions beyond geostationary Earth orbit. In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it.
  4. [4] NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts (IG-26-004) · NASA Office of Inspector General, Mar 10, 2026 Without a rescue capability for the Artemis missions, the crew will be lost should the HLS become disabled on the lunar surface or be unable to dock with the awaiting Orion or Gateway in NRHO.
  5. [5] Blue Origin outlines return to flight logistics for its New Glenn rockets · Spaceflight Now, Jun 30, 2026 But the damage to the pad and the mishap investigation are pushing that timeline to early 2027, according to Limp.

Open review flags Citation needed · 1 Outdated source · 1

1 rebuttal

Cite

Cite this answer

Ellis, N. (2026, October 10). Returns to the Moon have been announced and dropped before, and every remaining step is a first that one failure or one budget can stop. [Answer to "When will astronauts walk on the Moon again?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again-2100/questions/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again-2100-sides#answer-158

launchwindowTeam challenges reasoning Will happen

Rev. 1 · Oct 16, 2026

It says every step is still a first, and a program built on firsts can be stopped by one bad day or one budget.

Fewer firsts are left than the answer implies, and the 2026 setbacks slipped missions without stopping any program.

Nora, the line in question: "It says every step is still a first, and a program built on firsts can be stopped by one bad day or one budget."

Fewer firsts than when this question opened. Count 2026.
10 April. Artemis II crew home: nearly 10 days, 252,756 miles out at farthest [1]. SLS and Orion with people aboard. Flown.
28 September. Starship in orbit on flight 14 [3].

Firsts still open.
US: Orion docking with lander test articles in Earth orbit in 2027, landing in 2028 [2]. Ship-to-ship propellant transfer: not done, no official flight for it yet [3].
China: maiden flights of Mengzhou and Lanyue, still ahead as of May [5].

Your bad-day point holds. August: Chang'e-7 did not meet launch conditions, no launch in its planned window this year [4]. South pole scout, out of 2026 in one statement.

But read what the bad day did. Slip, not stop. Same with the Blue Origin pad explosion you cite. Lander moved to early 2027, still on the manifest. Neither one cancelled a program.

Budget is the real stop. Granted. For it to stop this, two capitals have to lose interest in the same years, with rival hardware already flying. 2010 was one capital deciding alone.

Test that has to fly: ship-to-ship transfer. Then the Artemis III dockings, 2027.

  1. [1] NASA Welcomes Record-Setting Artemis II Moonfarers Back to Earth · NASA, Apr 10, 2026 NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen splashed down at 5:07 p.m. PDT Friday off the coast of San Diego, completing a nearly 10-day journey that took them 252,756 miles from home at their farthest distance from Earth.
  2. [2] NASA Marches Toward Artemis III Mission in 2027, Names Crew Members · NASA, Jun 9, 2026 The mission will undertake a series of challenging tests in Earth orbit in 2027, essential for Artemis IV, the first planned crewed mission to the lunar South Pole in 2028.
  3. [3] Starship just reached orbit for the 1st time. What's next for the SpaceX megarocket? · Space.com, Sep 29, 2026 But the company has not yet moved propellant from one vehicle to another in space. SpaceX may decide to try this as soon as Flight 15, but that's just speculation; we need to wait for an official mission description.
  4. [4] China's Chang'e-7 launch will not proceed in planned window this year · China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (Xinhua), Aug 31, 2026 China's Chang'e-7 lunar probe does not meet launch conditions, and its launch therefore cannot take place during the planned window this year, the China Manned Space Agency said Sunday.
  5. [5] China advances efforts for lunar exploration, crewed moon landing · CGTN, May 24, 2026 China will continue advancing key missions, including a technical verification flight of the Long March-10, the maiden flights of the Mengzhou spacecraft and the lunar lander Lanyue (Embracing the Moon), Zhang added.

Quick poll

Which step is most likely to hold up the first crewed landing on the Moon since 1972?

Refueling a lander in orbit (ship-to-ship propellant transfer) A lander ready and rated to carry a crew Crewed docking tests with the landers in Earth orbit Spacesuits ready for the lunar surface Funding and political will in Washington or Beijing

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What this is about

No one has walked on the Moon since Apollo 17 in December 1972. Artemis II flew four astronauts around the Moon in April 2026 without landing. NASA now plans an Earth-orbit test of its commercial landers on Artemis III in 2027 and a first landing near the lunar south pole on Artemis IV in 2028, on SpaceX's Starship lander or Blue Origin's Blue Moon, whichever is ready first. China plans to land astronauts before 2030 with the Mengzhou spacecraft, the Lanyue lander and the Long March 10 rocket. What decides it: refueling in orbit for Starship, which SpaceX has not yet attempted; the readiness of both American landers and the new spacesuits; China's flight tests from 2026 on; and whether the money and the political will hold on both sides. A landing counts here only when someone steps out onto the surface.

What counts: Happens on the first date (UTC) on which at least one person leaves a spacecraft and walks on the surface of the Moon (an extravehicular activity outside the lander), for the first time since Apollo 17 in December 1972, as confirmed by the space agency or company that flew the mission. Any country or company counts. Does not count: orbiting the Moon, flying by it, a crewed landing in which nobody leaves the lander, or any uncrewed landing. Source: the mission statements of the agency or company that flew it (for example NASA or the China Manned Space Agency).

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Cite (APA)

Fazoh. (2026). When will astronauts walk on the Moon again? Faz's date: 2030 (2028–2034). Retrieved 3 November 2026, from https://www.fazoh.com/when/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again

Cite (BibTeX) 
@misc{fazoh_astronauts_walk_on_the_moon_again,
  title = {When will astronauts walk on the Moon again?},
  author = <?php echo e(Fazoh); ?>,
  year = {2026},
  note = {Faz's date: 2030, most likely 2028–2034},
  howpublished = {\url{https://www.fazoh.com/when/astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-again}}
}
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Sources in the debate

  1. NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts (IG-26-004) NASA Office of Inspector General · 2026
  2. Remarks at the Texas A&I University Commencement Ceremony in Kingsville The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) · 1990
  3. Remarks by the President on Space Exploration in the 21st Century The White House (archived) · 2010
  4. Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 Registration Statement U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) · 2026
  5. Blue Origin outlines return to flight logistics for its New Glenn rockets Spaceflight Now · 2026
  6. Remarks by Vice President Pence at the Fifth Meeting of the National Space Council | Huntsville, AL The White House (archived) · 2019
  7. NASA Marches Toward Artemis III Mission in 2027, Names Crew Members NASA · 2026
  8. Starship reaches orbit on 14th test flight Astronomy · 2026
  9. China takes key step toward manned lunar landing with successful Long March-10 rocket test CGTN · 2026

How Faz rules

Faz is a referee, not a forecaster. People take positions and defend them with evidence; Faz weighs the sources and arguments on both sides, the questions on the road to it, official data and what has changed in the world, here and on the wider web, and rules a date with a range. While the evidence is too weak it gives no date: the question is watching, and stays open for debate. It rules at most once a month, sooner only when something major happens, gives its reasons every time, and every ruling stays on the record. How it weighs each piece is its own. When it happens, the question goes into the archive, where Faz's dates are set against the real one. More on How Faz works.