When will humans first land on Mars? Faz's date: 2045

Faz's reasons

Reference class: first-of-a-kind crewed programs and their announced dates. Crewed Mars dates have slipped every time, starting with a 1982 landing presented to NASA in 1969, and the Moon went without a crewed landing from 1972 to a mission now planned for 2028. Faz treats today's targets as the early end of the range, not its middle: NASA has ordered a study of round-trip crewed Mars missions by 2036, SpaceX says it will start on Mars within five to seven years after putting the Moon first, and China is preparing a Mars sample return launch around 2028. The critical path sets the floor. Starship reached orbit only in September 2026, and SpaceX's own filing says in-orbit refueling, on which its Mars plans rest, has not been demonstrated or attempted. After refueling come an intact uncrewed landing, a crew one or more transfer windows later, and a radiation dose the National Academies expect to exceed NASA's career standard. That chain puts the earliest plausible landing in the mid-2030s and the most likely one in the mid-2040s. The case for this century is strong because an agency, a company and a state are each working toward Mars; it is not settled, because will for deep space has lapsed for half a century before. What weighed most in this ruling is the unattempted refueling: until it flies, every date is a target.

What the ruling rests on

For it happening
Starship, the vehicle every SpaceX Mars plan uses, reached orbit for the first time on its fourteenth flight in September 2026.

“After 13 previous suborbital test flights, Starship finally reached orbit on test flight 14.”
Astronomy · Sep 2026
For it happening
NASA's administrator ordered a study of propulsion for round-trip crewed and cargo Mars missions by 2036.

“Within 60 days, complete a study to guide investment in a next-generation integrated spacecraft program – maximizing use of NASA and vendor facilities – evaluating NTP, NEP, and chemical propulsion to enable unrefueled roundtrip crewed and cargo missions to Mars by 2036.”
NASA · May 2026
For it happening
China's Tianwen-3 Mars sample return, the robotic step before any Chinese crewed mission, is planned for launch around 2028.

“The Tianwen-3 mission, part of China's planetary exploration program, is planned for launch around 2028. It aims to bring Martian samples back to Earth around 2031.”
Xinhua · Apr 2026
For it happening
SpaceX still states a Mars start within five to seven years, though it now puts the Moon first.

“SpaceX still intends to start on Musk’s long-held ambition of a city on Mars within five to seven years, he wrote on his X social media platform, “but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.””
NBC News (Reuters) · Feb 2026
Against
SpaceX's own securities filing says in-orbit refueling, essential to its Mars plans, has not been demonstrated or attempted.

“In addition, in-orbit refueling of Starship is essential to our lunar, Mars, asteroid mining, and other deep space ambitions beyond geostationary Earth orbit. In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it.”
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) · May 2026
Against
The first crewed Mars landing date, 1982, was set in 1969; every crewed Mars date since has also passed.

“The information presented here describes a method of landing men on the planet Mars in 1982.”
NASA Technical Reports Server · Aug 1969
Against
The National Academies expect long-duration crews to exceed NASA's 600 mSv radiation standard.

“The committee concludes that astronauts who travel on long-duration spaceflight missions are likely to be exposed to radiation levels that exceed the proposed new space radiation standard of an effective dose of 600 mSv.”
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine · Jun 2021
Against
No crew has landed on the Moon since 1972; the next landing is planned for 2028, more than half a century after the hardware was proven.

“it will definitely have to be people-friendly by the time Artemis IV rolls around in 2028. That mission will land astronauts near the lunar south pole, in the first crewed moon touchdown since Apollo 17 in 1972.”
Space.com · Sep 2026

What would change the ruling

A full-scale ship-to-ship propellant transfer in orbit would bring the date and the early end of the range closer; a failure, or no attempt by the end of 2027, would push them later.
An intact uncrewed Starship landing on Mars from the late-2028 or 2031 window would move the date toward the late 2030s.
NASA turning its 2036 study into a funded crewed Mars program with a lander contract would strengthen the case for this century.
A fatal accident, or a lunar base absorbing the money of NASA and SpaceX for a decade, would push the date later and weaken the case for this century.
China naming a funded crewed Mars schedule after Tianwen-3 returns its samples would strengthen the case and narrow the range.

The two sides

Every argument takes a side and brings its evidence. Faz weighs them by their sources and reasoning, never by how many agree.

It will happen1 answer It won’t happen1 answer

Sign in to argue a side

The case that it will happen

launchwindow Team argued Will happen

@launchwindow · Rev. 1 · Oct 7, 2026

It happens, on a slipped schedule: first boots in the early to mid 2040s, about a decade after today's best targets.

1982. First crewed Mars landing date, presented to NASA in August 1969 ^[1]. Passed. Every Mars date since has gone the same way.

Current targets, on paper:
NASA: a study of round-trip crewed missions to Mars by 2036 ^[2].
SpaceX: a start on Mars within five to seven years, Moon first ^[3].
China: first crewed mission in 2033, set out in 2021 ^[4].

Difference this time is hardware. Starship reached orbit in September. Ship-to-ship propellant transfer still has not flown ^[5]. Every Starship Mars plan sits behind that one test.

My correction: take the best target, add the slip. First-of-a-kind crewed dates move by years, not months. So refueling in 2027 or 2028. Uncrewed landing on Mars in the 2031 window, if the Moon releases the ships. Crew one or two windows later. First boots in the early 2040s. Mid-2040s if a test fails once. Past 2050 only if two fail, or the money goes.

Best case for Not: will for deep space has lapsed before, and Mars needs it for decades. Fair. But the work no longer sits with one customer. An agency, a company and a state, on separate budgets. One can stall. All three stalling for 74 years is the long bet.

Test that has to fly: full-scale propellant transfer in orbit. Then a Starship on Mars, intact.

[1] Manned Mars Landing: Presentation to the Space Task Group · NASA Technical Reports Server, Aug 4, 1969 The information presented here describes a method of landing men on the planet Mars in 1982.
[2] A Message From Administrator Jared Isaacman · NASA, May 22, 2026 Within 60 days, complete a study to guide investment in a next-generation integrated spacecraft program – maximizing use of NASA and vendor facilities – evaluating NTP, NEP, and chemical propulsion to enable unrefueled roundtrip crewed and cargo missions to Mars by 2036.
[3] In a reversal, SpaceX prioritizes 'city' on the moon over Mars project, Musk says · NBC News (Reuters), Feb 9, 2026 SpaceX still intends to start on Musk’s long-held ambition of a city on Mars within five to seven years, he wrote on his X social media platform, “but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.”
[4] China plans for first manned mission to Mars in 2033 · Al Jazeera (Reuters), Jun 24, 2021 China plans to send its first crewed mission to Mars in 2033, with regular follow-up flights, under a long-term plan to build a permanently inhabited base on the Red Planet and extract its resources.
[5] Starship reaches orbit on 14th test flight · Astronomy, Sep 30, 2026 The hardest milestone is still ahead, though: transferring cryogenic propellant between two Starships in space.

Cite

Cite this answer

launchwindow (2026, October 7). It happens, on a slipped schedule: first boots in the early to mid 2040s, about a decade after today's best targets. [Answer to "When will humans first land on Mars?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/humans-on-mars-2100/questions/humans-on-mars-2100-sides#answer-151

The case that it won’t

Nora Ellis Team argued Won’t happen

@nora_ellis · Rev. 1 · Oct 7, 2026

No agency or company has a funded crewed Mars program, orbital refueling has not been attempted, and the record of lapsed commitments suggests the chain breaks before 2100.

SpaceX's prospectus, filed in May, says this about the step its Moon and Mars plans share: "In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it." ^[1] That sentence comes from the company with the most hardware, writing to investors under securities law. It is the honest place to start.

The government documents read the same way. NASA's 2027 request asks for $200 million for a near-term demonstration of a human-class Mars lander ^[2]. A request, for a demonstration. I could not find, in any agency's budget, a crewed Mars program with an appropriation, a lander contract and a crew schedule.

The "happens" case leans on targets, and targets have a record. In 1990 a president set a timetable: the flag on Mars before Apollo's 50th anniversary ^[3]. That anniversary came in 2019. Even the Moon, with hardware already proven, waited from Apollo 17 in 1972 for a landing now planned for 2028 ^[4]. Will for deep space has lapsed for half a century before.

Then the crew. The National Academies concluded that astronauts on long-duration missions are likely to exceed the proposed 600 mSv career limit ^[5]. Each Mars crew would need a waiver, or shielding nobody has flown.

I grant the strongest point on the other side: Starship now reaches orbit, and more than one actor wants Mars. That makes a landing possible this century. Possible is not the same as funded through seventy years of budgets, elections and accidents. The chain has many links, and the record says one of them usually breaks: a fatal failure, a lunar base that absorbs the money, a waiver nobody signs.

This would change if a full-scale propellant transfer flies and Congress funds a crewed Mars program with a landing date.

[1] Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 Registration Statement · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR), May 20, 2026 In addition, in-orbit refueling of Starship is essential to our lunar, Mars, asteroid mining, and other deep space ambitions beyond geostationary Earth orbit. In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it.
[2] NASA's Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request · NASA, Apr 3, 2026 $2,277M for the Human Landing System program to accelerate development of Artemis IV in 2028, including $200M for a near-term demonstration for a human-class Mars lander that advances technologies critical for the first crewed mission to the Red Planet
[3] Remarks at the Texas A&I University Commencement Ceremony in Kingsville · The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), May 11, 1990 I believe that before Apollo celebrates the 50th anniversary of its landing on the Moon the American flag should be planted on Mars.
[4] Starship just reached orbit for the 1st time. What's next for the SpaceX megarocket? · Space.com, Sep 29, 2026 it will definitely have to be people-friendly by the time Artemis IV rolls around in 2028. That mission will land astronauts near the lunar south pole, in the first crewed moon touchdown since Apollo 17 in 1972.
[5] Space Radiation and Astronaut Health: Managing and Communicating Cancer Risks (Summary) · National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Jun 24, 2021 The committee concludes that astronauts who travel on long-duration spaceflight missions are likely to be exposed to radiation levels that exceed the proposed new space radiation standard of an effective dose of 600 mSv.

Open review flags Citation needed · 1

Cite

Cite this answer

Ellis, N. (2026, October 7). No agency or company has a funded crewed Mars program, orbital refueling has not been attempted, and the record of lapsed commitments suggests the chain breaks before 2100. [Answer to "When will humans first land on Mars?", revision 1]. Fazoh. https://www.fazoh.com/claims/humans-on-mars-2100/questions/humans-on-mars-2100-sides#answer-152

Questions on the road

The steps this one waits on, each a question of its own with its own debate and Faz's date. What they come to moves this date.

2028 When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at full scale in Earth orbit? Faz's date · 2027–2033
2045 When will humans first land on Mars? This question

What this is about

Agencies and companies have named dates for a crewed Mars landing since 1969, and every one of them has moved. The open question is no longer whether it can be done but when the slowest steps are finished: moving propellant between ships in orbit, landing payloads of tens of tons, life support that runs for years without resupply, and keeping each crew's radiation dose within safe limits. This topic follows that chain rung by rung, from 2035 to 2100.

What counts: At least one person stands on the surface of Mars, confirmed by the agency or company that flew the mission. Orbiting Mars, flying past it, landing on Phobos or Deimos, and robotic landings do not count.

The date updates itself wherever it is shown: put it in an article, a slide or a paper.

Embed (HTML)

<a href="https://www.fazoh.com/when/humans-on-mars"><img src="https://www.fazoh.com/when/humans-on-mars/badge.svg" alt="When will humans first land on Mars? · Faz's date on Fazoh" width="440" height="96"></a>

Cite (APA)

Fazoh. (2026). When will humans first land on Mars? Faz's date: 2045 (2036–2075). Retrieved 3 November 2026, from https://www.fazoh.com/when/humans-on-mars

Cite (BibTeX)

@misc{fazoh_humans_on_mars,
  title = {When will humans first land on Mars?},
  author = <?php echo e(Fazoh); ?>,
  year = {2026},
  note = {Faz's date: 2045, most likely 2036–2075},
  howpublished = {\url{https://www.fazoh.com/when/humans-on-mars}}
}

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Sources in the debate

Manned Mars Landing: Presentation to the Space Task Group NASA Technical Reports Server · 1969
A Message From Administrator Jared Isaacman NASA · 2026
In a reversal, SpaceX prioritizes 'city' on the moon over Mars project, Musk says NBC News (Reuters) · 2026
China plans for first manned mission to Mars in 2033 Al Jazeera (Reuters) · 2021
Starship reaches orbit on 14th test flight Astronomy · 2026
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form S-1 Registration Statement U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR) · 2026
NASA's Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request NASA · 2026
Remarks at the Texas A&I University Commencement Ceremony in Kingsville The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) · 1990
Starship just reached orbit for the 1st time. What's next for the SpaceX megarocket? Space.com · 2026
Space Radiation and Astronaut Health: Managing and Communicating Cancer Risks (Summary) National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine · 2021

How Faz rules

Faz is a referee, not a forecaster. People take positions and defend them with evidence; Faz weighs the sources and arguments on both sides, the questions on the road to it, official data and what has changed in the world, here and on the wider web, and rules a date with a range. While the evidence is too weak it gives no date: the question is watching, and stays open for debate. It rules at most once a month, sooner only when something major happens, gives its reasons every time, and every ruling stays on the record. How it weighs each piece is its own. When it happens, the question goes into the archive, where Faz's dates are set against the real one. More on How Faz works.

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When will humans first land on Mars?

Faz's reasons

What the ruling rests on

What would change the ruling

The two sides

The case that it will happen

It happens, on a slipped schedule: first boots in the early to mid 2040s, about a decade after today's best targets.

The case that it won’t

No agency or company has a funded crewed Mars program, orbital refueling has not been attempted, and the record of lapsed commitments suggests the chain breaks before 2100.

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Questions on the road

What this is about

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How Faz rules

When will humans first land on Mars?

Faz's reasons

What the ruling rests on

What would change the ruling

The two sides

The case that it will happen

It happens, on a slipped schedule: first boots in the early to mid 2040s, about a decade after today's best targets.

The case that it won’t

No agency or company has a funded crewed Mars program, orbital refueling has not been attempted, and the record of lapsed commitments suggests the chain breaks before 2100.

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