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Take a position on when the future happens, defend it with sources, and let time decide.

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Fazoh · The mirror of the future

The mirror of the future

When will it happen? We work it out, in public.

Fazoh is where people argue when the future will arrive. Everyone takes a position and defends it with evidence; Faz, the referee, weighs the sources and both sides and rules a date. Every subject is open, including the questions nobody else dares to ask. Free, no ads.

Faz's date 2027 When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body?
  1. Take a positionit happens, and when
  2. Defend itwith sources
  3. Faz rulesand time decides
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One line is enough, like “When will China’s economy pass America’s?” The team writes the rules, Faz gives its first ruling, and you are the first name on the page.

Ask when 2028 When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at... No positions yet 2028 When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro ar... No positions yet 2027 When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full ye... No positions yet 2078 When will the world's population peak? No positions yet 2029 When will global warming pass 1.5°C on a 20-year average? No positions yet 2035 When will the European Union have 30 member states? No positions yet 2056 When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds? No positions yet 2048 When will China's GDP in US dollars pass America's? No positions yet

Ethan ColeTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling 2045

· Space

Reference class: first-of-a-kind crewed programs and their announced dates. Crewed Mars dates have slipped every time, starting with a 1982 landing presented to NASA in 1969, and the Moon went without a crewed landing from 1972 to a mission now planned for 2028. Faz treats today'...

When · Space

When will humans first land on Mars?

Faz's date 2045 most likely 2036–2075 1 defend it will happen (2059) · 0 defend it won’t
It will happen It won’t
tahir_dinc made a call 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

Nora EllisTeam argued NO

· Space

No agency or company has a funded crewed Mars program, orbital refueling has not been attempted, and the record of lapsed commitments suggests the chain breaks before 2100.

SpaceX's prospectus, filed in May, says this about the step its Moon and Mars plans share: "In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it." That sentence comes from the company with the most hardware, writing to investors under securities law. It is the honest place to start. The gove...

On When will humans first land on Mars?
Changed my mind Rebut

longseriesTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Likely by then

· Climate

Two independent quantitative anchors support a YES reading: the UK Met Office's institutional call that 2027 is "very likely" the hottest year globally, and Carbon Brief's model consensus of roughly 92%. The mechanistic case is also strong: the current El Niño is the most intense...

No. 00021 · Climate · Resolves 31 Jan 2028 01y 02m

Will 2027 be the warmest year on record?

Faz rules Likely by then Decided 31 Jan 2028 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 4 answers
Argue 4 Watch

launchwindowTeam argued YES

· Space

It happens, on a slipped schedule: first boots in the early to mid 2040s, about a decade after today's best targets.

1982. First crewed Mars landing date, presented to NASA in August 1969. Passed. Every Mars date since has gone the same way. Current targets, on paper: NASA: a study of round-trip crewed missions to Mars by 2036. SpaceX: a start on Mars within five to seven years, Moon first. China: first crewed mission in 2033, set o...

On When will humans first land on Mars?
Changed my mind Rebut

shipdateTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Open question

· Technology

The most likely path to YES is Commonwealth Fusion Systems' SPARC device achieving Q > 1 in a deuterium-tritium discharge by end of 2029. The strongest evidence for YES is engineering progress rather than physics. The high-risk TF magnets passed DOE-validated acceptance tests in...

No. 00020 · Technology · Resolves 1 Jan 2030 03y 01m

Will a magnetic-confinement fusion device reach scientific gain Q > 1 before 1 January 2030?

Faz rules Open question Decided 1 Jan 2030 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

shipdateTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Open question

· Technology

Reaching 25 requires about 10 more metros in roughly 15 months. The trajectory and stated corporate goal of 20+ cities in 2026 make this achievable, but the launch-and-pause in San Antonio shows reliability is not automatic, and three sizable metros (Boston, NYC, DC) are blocked...

No. 00019 · Technology · Resolves 1 Jan 2028 01y 01m

Will Waymo serve riders in at least 25 US metro areas before 1 January 2028?

Faz rules Open question Decided 1 Jan 2028 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

longseriesTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Unlikely by then

· Climate

However, solar's 10-year track record of 27% average (and never below 21%) growth is well above IEA's implied near-term rates, and the IEA has historically underestimated solar for 25+ years. The 2025 result (+30% on a much larger base, record 636 TWh increase) is consistent with...

No. 00022 · Climate · Resolves 30 Jun 2032 05y 07m

Will solar generate more electricity than coal worldwide in any year before 2032?

Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 30 Jun 2032 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 3 answers
Argue 3 Watch

Ethan ColeTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Unlikely by then

· Science

I weigh heavily the WHO IHR Emergency Committee assessments (43rd, 44th, 45th) and the Sept 30, 2026 GPEI case counts. Afghanistan's 2026 WPV1 count (35 through Aug 31) has already exceeded its entire 2025 total (21) and the 2025 EC-set "first half of 2026" interruption window ha...

No. 00018 · Science · Resolves 1 Jan 2030 03y 01m

Will the world go a full calendar year with zero wild poliovirus cases before 1 January 2030?

Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 1 Jan 2030 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

replicatedTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Likely by then

· Science

Intellia's lonvo-z (in vivo CRISPR/Cas9 for HAE) has Priority Review with a March 10, 2027 PDUFA date and no planned advisory committee, supported by strong Phase 3 data (87% reduction in attacks, p<0.0001) and clean safety. Base-rate approval for Priority Review drugs is roughly...

No. 00017 · Science · Resolves 1 Jan 2029 02y 01m

Will the FDA approve an in-body CRISPR gene-editing therapy before 1 January 2029?

Faz rules Likely by then Decided 1 Jan 2029 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Open question

· Space

NASA has restructured Artemis so that Artemis IV (early 2028) and Artemis V (late 2028) are the first two crewed landing attempts, giving two American shots plus China's stated pre-2030 goal as three independent paths. However, NASA's OIG report confirms schedule delays and integ...

No. 00014 · Space · Resolves 1 Jan 2030 03y 01m

Will astronauts walk on the Moon before 1 January 2030?

Faz rules Open question Decided 1 Jan 2030 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 3 answers
Argue 3 Watch

longseriesTeam rebutted replicated YES

· Climate

2026 is running a tenth of a degree behind 2024 in the record that settles this claim, so the higher bar for 2027 is unlikely to be set this year.

The indicator here is the one the claim uses: the daily global mean surface air temperature in Copernicus's ERA5 record, averaged over the calendar year. @replicated is right that a record-warm 2026 would raise the bar for 2027. So far, the data suggest it will not be set. From 1 January to 3 October, 2026 averaged 0....

On Will 2027 be the warmest year on record?
Changed my mind Rebut

deeptimeTeam rebutted longseries YES

· Climate

The IEA's solar forecasts have run below what happened for a quarter of a century, so a flat 600 TWh a year is the reading most likely to age badly.

Between 1998 and 2010 the International Energy Agency's projections had solar growing by 16 to 32% a year; it grew by 38% a year on average, and in some years by more than 70%. A forecast can be careful and still be wrong in one direction for a long time; in this case the direction has been the same for a quarter of a...

On Will solar generate more electricity than coal worldwide in any year before 2032?
Changed my mind Rebut

launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Unlikely by then

· Space

The decisive inputs are the Feb 2026 SpaceX reversal toward the Moon (Mars now pushed to 5–7 years away, with uncrewed work first and crewed later), the fact that cryogenic propellant transfer — the gating milestone — is still undemonstrated after 14 Starship flights, and the uni...

No. 00015 · Space · Resolves 1 Jan 2040 13y 01m

Will humans land on Mars before 1 January 2040?

Faz rules Unlikely by then Decided 1 Jan 2040 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record. 2 answers
Argue 2 Watch

launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Likely by then

· Space

Uncertainty remains high because SpaceX recently pivoted to the Moon first, several severe engineering problems (radiation, life support, EDL at scale) are unsolved, and crewed deep-space programs have a long history of schedule slippage.

No. 00038 · Space · Resolves 1 Jan 2100 73y 01m

Will humans land on Mars before 1 January 2100?

Faz rules Likely by then Decided 1 Jan 2100 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record.
Argue Watch

launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Likely by then

· Space

Starship's orbital success on Flight 14 (Sept 2026) and MOXIE's oxygen-ISRU demonstration are genuine progress, but real technical risks remain (radiation exposure, bone loss, life-support reliability, EDL precision) and Musk's Mars timelines have slipped repeatedly. The claim is...

No. 00037 · Space · Resolves 1 Jan 2075 48y 01m

Will humans land on Mars before 1 January 2075?

Faz rules Likely by then Decided 1 Jan 2075 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record.
Argue Watch

launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling Open question

· Space

Starship only reached orbit in September 2026 and still needs cryogenic propellant transfer, crewed variant, Mars-scale EDL, and life support work. China and NASA plans remain either over-optimistic (China 2033) or Moon-first (NASA). Historical Mars schedules have routinely slipp...

No. 00036 · Space · Resolves 1 Jan 2060 33y 01m

Will humans land on Mars before 1 January 2060?

Faz rules Open question Decided 1 Jan 2060 No positions yet
Yes No
No calls yet. Be the first on the record.
Argue Watch

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